Italy

[Italy General Election]2021 May Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s May Projection in Italy, we are projecting that Center-Right Coalition will gain the majority of both chambers very likely, after being ahead of Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement by little more than 10%p.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 54.05%

(-0.74pp From Apr ’21, +17.05pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 42.23%

(+0.06pp From Apr ’21, -15.75pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.72%

(+0.68pp From Apr ’21, -1.30pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 54.05%

(-0.74pp From Apr ’21, +17.05pp From Last Election)

Center-Left Coalition(CSX / Center-Left) : 21.98%

(+0.53pp From Apr ’21, +0.08pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent) : 17.66%

(-0.14pp From Apr ’21, -15.02pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing) : 2.59%

(-0.33pp From Apr ’21, -0.81pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 3.72%

(+0.68pp From Apr ’21, -1.30pp From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 27.75%

(-1.57pp From Apr ’21, +10.40pp From Last Election)

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 20.51%

(+1.28pp From Apr ’21, +16.16pp From Last Election)

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 17.66%

(-0.14pp From Apr ’21, -15.02pp From Last Election)

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 14.82%

(+0.55pp From Apr ’21, -3.94pp From Last Election)

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 5.62%

(+0.21pp From Apr ’21, -8.38pp From Last Election)

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.04%

(+0.07pp From Apr ’21, +1.48pp From Last Election)

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 2.59%

(-0.33pp From Apr ’21, -0.81pp From Last Election)

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 1.85%

(-0.06pp From Apr ’21, NEW PARTY)

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.27%

(-0.03pp From Apr ’21, +0.69pp From Last Election)

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.17%

(-0.66pp From Apr ’21, -1.13pp From Last Election)

Others(ALT / Mixed – ALT) : 3.72%

(+0.68pp From Apr ’21, -1.30pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection By Extended Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX / Center-Right) : 48.35%

Center-Left Coalition + Five Star Movement(CDX+M5S / Center-Left Big Tent) : 47.59%

Others(ALT / Mixed) : 4.06%

-Vote Share Projection By Original Coalition

Center-Right Coalition(CDX) : 48.35%

Center-Left Coalition(CSX) : 28.14%

Five Star Movement(M5S) : 16.31%

Free & Equal(LeU) : 3.14%

Others(ALT) : 4.06%

-Vote Share Projection By Party

League / Lega(LEGA / Far-Right – CDX) : 21.98%

Democratic Party(PD / Center-Left – CSX) : 19.58%

Brothers of Italy(FdI / Right-wing – CDX) : 18.67%

Five Star Movement(M5S / Big Tent – M5S) : 16.31%

Forward Italy / Forza Italia(FI / Center-Right – CDX) : 7.48%

Action + More Europe(A+PE / Lean-Left – CSX) : 4.42%

Free & Equal(LeU / Left-wing – LeU) : 3.14%

Italy Alive(IV / Lean-Left – CSX) : 2.45%

Green Europe(EV / Left-wing – CSX) : 1.69%

Let’s Change!(C! / Center-Right – CDX) : 0.22%

Others(ALT / Mixed – ALT) : 4.06%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_vnaCapG7M3SDAgjo5D4y_3Trx23V64UjFX5RYq1EDc/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

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