Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 April Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s April Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The second place is projected to be taken by Poland 2050, a new party led by Szymon Hołownia. Due to Poland 2050’s rise, Civic Coalition is now below 100 seats. On the other hand, The Left is up on the seat level but not on the vote level, and Confederation is significantly up. However, Polish Coalition is below the 5% threshold and therefore will have no seat.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 162 Seats

(+5 From Mar ’21, -73 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 106 Seats

(-8 From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 88 Seats

(-3 From Mar ’21, -46 From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 55 Seats

(+2 From Mar ’21, +6 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 48 Seats

(+4 From Mar ’21, +37 From Last Election)

German Minority Electoral Committee(KWMN / Lean-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Mar ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 30.24%

(+0.15pp From Mar ’21, -13.35pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.49%

(-1.60pp From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 18.48%

(-0.95pp From Mar ’21, -8.85pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 10.71%

(+2.36pp From Mar ’21, +3.90pp From Last Election)

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 10.19%

(-0.25pp From Mar ’21, -2.38pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.90%

(+0.63pp From Mar ’21, -3.66pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 2.00%

(+0.71pp From Mar ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 1.99%

(-1.05pp From Mar ’21, +0.89pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 32.98%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 21.29%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 18.31%

The Left(LEWICA / Left-wing) : 10.56%

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 8.75%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 5.08%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 2.08%

Others(INNE / Mixed) : 0.95%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PT0moD5HuIAXo57bs3tmfF-aCrpm9d3j7jFTt8qXo5o/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

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