United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 March Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s March Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives are likely to be retaining majority in the next parliament with a majority of 24 seats. Also, the the potential Conservative Alliance(CON+DUP+UUP) is ahead at this stage with 344 seats, being ahead of potential Progressive Alliance(LAB+SNP+LD+PC+AP+SDLP+GRN)‘s 298 by 46.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 337 Seats

(+28 From Feb ’21, -28 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 228 Seats

(-26 From Feb ’21, +25 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 52 Seats

(-3 From Feb ’21, +4 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 8 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, -3 From Last Election)

Sinn Féin / We Ourselves(SF / Left-wing) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Democratic Unionist Party(DUP / Right-wing) : 6 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, -2 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 5 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Alliance Party(AP / Center) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Social Democratic Labour Party(SDLP / Center-Left) : 2 Seats

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Ulster Unionist Party(UUP / Center-Right) : 1 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +1 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 0 Seat

(+0 From Feb ’21, +0 From Last Election)


-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.07%

(+2.20pp From Feb ’21, -2.56pp From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 35.66%

(-1.21pp From Feb ’21, +3.50pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 6.37%

(+0.38pp From Feb ’21, -5.46pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 4.56%

(+0.89pp From Feb ’21, +1.88pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 3.97%

(-0.63pp From Feb ’21, +0.09pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 1.60%

(-0.06pp From Feb ’21, +1.12pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 1.46%

(+0.47pp From Feb ’21, -0.55pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.73%

(+0.03pp From Feb ’21, +0.67pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.58%

(-2.07pp From Feb ’21, +0.96pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 41.80%

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 36.50%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.14%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 4.66%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.07%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.26%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.75%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 0.71%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 2.11%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UIsM18XFC03VHt3aiqBT0I3GqS-QZlMhB-q71QgdeY4/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

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