Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 February Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s February Projection in Poland, United Rights will be remaining as the largest group in the next Sejm, but no longer with a majority. The nearest, Civic Coalition is also down from the last election. This is due to rise of Poland 2050, a new party formed by Szymon Hołownia. In the other hand, The Left is almost steady with the last election, and Confederation is pretty significantly up. However, Polish Coalition is now below the threshold of 5% for the first time and therefore will have no seats.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 158 Seats

(+4 From Jan ’21, -77 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 108 Seats

(-2 From Jan ’21, -26 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 98 Seats

(+22 From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 50 Seats

(+7 From Jan ’21, +39 From Last Election)

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 45 Seats

(-1 From Jan ’21, -4 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 0 Seats

(-32 From Jan ’21, -30 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1 Seats

(+0 From Jan ’21, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 29.87%

(-1.12pp From Jan ’21, -13.72pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 21.23%

(-2.05pp From Jan ’21, -6.10pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 20.98%

(+5.13pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 10.40%

(+1.57pp From Jan ’21, +3.59pp From Last Election)

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 9.08%

(-0.49pp From Jan ’21, -3.49pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.37%

(-2.16pp From Jan ’21, -4.18pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0.99%

(-2.03pp From Jan ’21, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 3.08%

(+1.15pp From Jan ’21, +1.98pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 32.80%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 21.18%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 20.93%

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 9.48%

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 8.55%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.56%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 1.03%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.47%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/150w115Wdzz3J3yIp_U4wOYGVTipPQt11RTMPeJS06yc/

_Globe Elections UN Video

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

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