United Kingdom

[United Kingdom General Election]2021 January Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s January Projection in the United Kingdom(UK), we are projecting that the Conservatives are most likely to be the largest party in the next parliament. But at the current scenario, they’ll be short of 66 seats from the majority, meaning the potential Progressive Alliance could possibly form a new government.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 292 Seats

(-5 From Dec ’20, -73 From Last Election)

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 273 Seats

(+8 From Dec ’20, +70 From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 55 Seats

(-3 From Dec ’20, +7 From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, -4 From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 4 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 1 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 18 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 38.12%

(+0.58pp From Dec ’20, +5.96pp From Last Election)

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 36.82%

(-0.62pp From Dec ’20, -6.81pp From Last Election)

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.15%

(+0.93pp From Dec ’20, -4.68pp From Last Election)

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.35%

(+1.58pp From Dec ’20, +2.67pp From Last Election)

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.13%

(-0.82pp From Dec ’20, +0.25pp From Last Election)

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 2.12%

(+0.19pp From Dec ’20, +0.11pp From Last Election)

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 1.68%

(-0.46pp From Dec ’20, +1.20pp From Last Election)

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.56%

(-2.02pp From Dec ’20, +0.49pp From Last Election)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 4.07%

(+0.64pp From Dec ’20, +0.54pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

Labour Party(LAB / Center-Left) : 38.27%

Conservative Party(CON / Center-Right) : 37.22%

Liberal Democrats(LD / Lean-Left) : 7.55%

Green Party(GRN / Left-wing) : 5.98%

Scottish National Party(SNP / Center-Left) : 4.19%

Reform UK(RUK / Big Tent) : 3.87%

Plaid Cymru / Party of Wales(PC / Center-Left) : 0.70%

UK Independence Party(UKIP / Far-Right) : 0.25%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.97%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x2c8H3zknlIMeTZ_Fr9dVbc_Ng4YfBExjyTT5dzyhaU/

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

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