Poland

[Poland General Election]2021 January Globe Elections UN Projection/Prediction/Forecast

_HEADLINE

According to Globe Elections UN’s January Projection in Poland, the United Rights will be remaining as the largest coalition in the next Sejm, but with no majority. The nearest contender, Civic Coalition is currently down slightly compared to the last election. This is due to rise of Poland 2050, a new party formed by Szymon Hołownia. In the other hand, The Left and Polish Coalition is almost steady with the last election, and Confederation is still pretty significantly up.

_POLL+ERROR PROJECTION

-Seat Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 154 Seats

(+5 From Dec ’20, -81 From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 110 Seats

(-1 From Dec ’20, -24 From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 76 Seats

(-4 From Dec ’20, NEW PARTY)

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 46 Seats

(+1 From Dec ’20, -3 From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 43 Seats

(+1 From Dec ’20, +32 From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 32 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +2 From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 0 Seats

(NEW PARTY, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1 Seats

(+0 From Dec ’20, +0 From Last Election)

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 30.99%

(+1.02pp From Dec ’20, -12.60pp From Last Election)

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 23.28%

(-1.10pp From Dec ’20, -4.14pp From Last Election)

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 15.85%

(-1.68pp From Dec ’20, NEW PARTY)

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 9.57%

(-0.10pp From Dec ’20, -3.00pp From Last Election)

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 8.83%

(-0.28pp From Dec ’20, +2.02pp From Last Election)

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 6.53%

(+0.04pp From Dec ’20, -2.02pp From Last Election)

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 3.02%

(NEW PARTY, NEW PARTY)

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.93%

(-0.92pp From Dec ’20, +0.83pp From Last Election)

_POLL BASE PROJECTION

-Vote Share Projection

United Right(ZP / Right-wing) : 34.75%

Civic Coalition(KO / Center Big Tent) : 23.38%

Poland 2050(PL2050 / Center) : 15.92%

The Left(KL / Left-wing) : 10.60%

Confederation Freedom and Independence(KWiN / Far-Right) : 7.11%

Polish Coalition(KP / Lean-Right) : 4.93%

Kukiz’ 15(K15 / Center-Right) : 2.28%

Others(OTH / Mixed) : 1.03%

_FULL DETAILS/RESULTS

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iKOPbrazfRlc7mk_gegOAqojhhHWhi0wJsYIhOs8a7E/

_Globe Elections Projection/Prediction/Forecast Dashboard

: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kr8ZSdkUo0b5gQzPURfHQ0cLqcZpVmSWcnDUOK14mOY/

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